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Guests: Dr. Tom Matula, Dr Darryl Mitry; Topics: We discussed the new book by our two authors, "Beyond the Covid Shock: The Great Economic Transition." While many of our discussion points/questions were of a general economic nature, we applied most everything w/out economy to commercial space. Don't miss this discussion.
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We welcomed Dr. Tom Matula and Dr. Darryl Mitry to the show to discuss their book, "Beyond the Covid Shock: The Great Economic Transition." We started our discussion by asking our guests why they decided to write this book and since it had a 2020 publication date, was it out of date? Dr. Mitry provided us with a good but short pandemic history with economic consequences for the lockdown, GDP numbers before and after the lockdowns, a look at consumer behavior before and after Covid (so far) plus more. Tom said that despite the 2020 publication date, the book has been updates so it is not out of date with current conditions. Dr. Mitry's introduction continued by pointing out trends that are now solid such as Zoom meetings and working form home rather than returning to pre-Covid in person meetings, travel and office work. Our guest also commented on the lack of economic knowledge in our society, talking about how economic education has change over the years plus the new art of managing a post Covid budget. In addition, he mentioned some positive things arising form the post Covid period so don't miss any of this early discussion.
Listeners started asking questions early on, leading off with a question about a comparison between the Covid and a traditional economy. This question entertained interest rate increases, inflation and national debt. Listener John sent in a note asking if interest rate increases as planned by the Fed were the way to go, plus he wanted to know the potential impact of using a higher interest rate to slow down the economy in the private space sector. For example, would tightening up on the availability of money have a serious impact on private space investing. Darryl replied that higher interest rates would give investors new options for where and how to invest their money. We might see a return to CD investing or other instruments with a higher yield. Were this to be the case, some money might be pulled from the space investment arena. It is also worth noting that as the cost of money increases, smaller space companies, perhaps operating close to the margin or seeking funding may have difficulties.
Our caller Rob from Houston but now in Ohio wanted to know the impact on the cloud based sector including 3D printing, Just In Time delivery, and such. Tom, in his response to the question talked about workforce disruptions plus the probability of continuing waves of virus disruptions. Tom did a good job in explaining these concerns to us. both our guests talked about the possible impact on AI, robotics, and even a lowering of food prices should advanced AI and robotics be used in agriculture. This led to conversations about labor disruptions. China made its way into our discussion at this time.
Fremont John called to talk more about interest rates, wondering if that was the best way to deal with inflation. This was an interesting discussion which led to a call from Marshall inquiring about the economic models being used to forecast economics post pandemic. This in turn led to a brief discussion about the "independence' of our Federal Reserve but in fact it is not so independent. Darryl explained this to us. All of what Darry explained pointed to why there seems to be an increasing reliability issue with our government, economic activity and planning.
Both our guests pointed to the last chapter of the book more than once in our discussion. This chapter focused on how each of us can do our best to plan for the post-pandemic economic and both insulate ourselves from many of the evolving new ways of doing things including new policies, but also making use of these changes to help us make better decisions and plans. The subject of what can we each do to protect ourselves came up multiple times during our discussion. Each time the subject did come up our two guests directed us to this important last chapter in the book.
Clyde from Tucson asked about the value of the dollar and the dollar remaining as the world's reserve currency. Darryl fielded the question and thought that the dollar would remain so because changes impacting the dollar also impacting others but likely with more severity. This would be a good time for you to let us know your thoughts on the dollar remaining the world currency. Also, if the dollar was challenged, how do you think that would impact commercial space development? Please post your commentary on this and other related topics on our blog.
Ft. Worth John called to talk some more about labor concerns including automated farm labor given earlier in the show our guest pointed out to new automated tractors. John talked about the jobs going away and wondered if this would facilitate UBI. What do you think? Use our blog, please. Regarding UBI, Robert sent in an email addressing untrained or unskilled labor being given UBI due to the disruption and the fact that they would not likely be retrained for a high tech type of job.
Tim from Huntsville called to talk some politics, used Big Pharma as one of his examples, along with his commentary on the supply chain issues we are now experiencing. Tony sent in an email asking about crypto currency post pandemic. Our guests suggested the bank would play with it some but would be too powerful to let crypto over take segments of the economy. As we were nearing the end of the program, I asked our guests to compare the Covid pandemic via history to earlier historic pandemics. The 1918 flu pandemic was used by our guests and they compared history and trends back then to now. This was a very interesting segment so be sure to hear it. As for changes now, Darryl talked about skyscrapers now being dinosaurs. He said there would be no return to the old normal, a theme repeated many times in their book. Going forward we will be developing the new normal.
Fremont John contacted us again to ask for a timeline for GDP changes. As stated earlier by our guests, they suggested that pandemic related economic changes would be happening over a 3-5 years period. More was said about the Fed (our Federal Reserve), Omicron and the belief by many that the pandemic was ending. He wanted to know the thinking of our guests regarding Omicron and the ending of the pandemic. Dr. Doug sent in a late email addressing automation in jobs.
Our guests offered us concluding comments focusing on positive changes that will happen as a result of the pandemic and being ready to take advantage of these changes. Once again, look at the last chapter in the book. Our guests talked about remote work, increased education for kids, and new ideas about graduate degrees such as the MBA. Our guests talked about policy makers and others needing to be educated and informed, not ignorant.
Please post your comments/questions for our two guests on our blog. You can order their book from Amazon, www.amazon.com/Beyond-Covid-Shock-Economic-Transition/dp/B094GQN6V8/ref=sr_1_1?crid=1XQ24CD35B3TC&keywords=Beyond+the+covid+shock&qid=1643135473&sprefix=beyond+the+covid+shock%2Caps%2C113&sr=8- and you can contact either guest through me or our blog. Remember, to use the OGLF link on in the middle of our home page if your order from Amazon as Amazon will donate a percentage of the purchase price to OGLF.